Annual statement of the transmission system operator: the development of the Baltic balancing market will create new business opportunities for the electricity market participants
In the following years, a significant increase in energy produced by renewable energy resources (RES) is expected in Latvia and the whole Baltic Sea region. Therefore, the reliability and stability of the electricity system will require a greater involvement of balancing capacities, therefore one of the priorities in the Baltic region will be the development of the balancing market, informs the annual statement of the transmission system operator (TSO) published by AS "Augstsprieguma tīkls" (AST).
"Due to the rapid development of RES connections, the Baltic States will have to pay more attention to the planning of RES generation, as well as to the power adequacy and to regulation and balancing capacities, creating opportunities for business to develop new products in the provision of balancing market services," says AST board member Mr. Arnis Daugulis.
According to the assessment carried out by the European Network of Electricity Transmission System Operators (ENTSO-E), the power adequacy in Latvia to ensure electricity supply until 2030 is optimal, at the same time, considering the planned development of large amounts of RES generation into the market, all three Baltic countries need to jointly promote higher power adequacy at the regional level.
The TSO statement underlines that electricity transmission interconnections, strengthening of the transmission network and integration of the Baltic electricity system into the European electricity market will play a significant role in meeting the demand for electricity and meeting the growing number of RES producers' connections. Currently, the top priority task is the Baltic power systems synchronization with continental Europe, which is planned for the beginning of 2025. With the rapid growth of RES capacities after 2030, it is essential to develop interconnections to Estonia, Sweden, Germany and Lithuania, as well as to strengthen the internal 330 kV transmission network.
In order to further promote the development of RES, thereby reducing carbon dioxide emissions and moving towards the goal of a climate-neutral energy system, it is necessary to promote the development of electricity consumption technologies in Latvia and their connection to the transmission network, i.e. electrification of the economic, transport and industry sectors, as well as new sectors such as the production and use of hydrogen and other P2X technologies.
The TSO annual statement predicts that the annual electricity consumption in Latvia will increase from 7,106 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022 to 7,543 GWh in the next ten years according to the conservative and to 8,093 GWh according to the optimistic development scenario. Planning the possible electricity balance, it was concluded that according to the conservative scenario, Latvia's ability to produce the necessary electricity for the country will remain in the amount of 82-86% in the coming years, but after 2030 the 100% limit will be exceeded, while according to the optimistic development scenario, this indicator will be 121- 176% for the upcoming decade.
Full report can be found on the AST website: https://www.ast.lv/en/content/tso-annual-statement#reports