In May 2026, the average electricity price in the Latvian bidding area increased to EUR 82,14 per megawatt hour (EUR/MWh), which is 43% more than in April, while compared to May 2025, the price is 21% higher.
Highlights in May :
- In May, the average electricity price in the Baltic states increased by 31,82% compared to April to 74,83 EUR/MWh, which at the same time was 10,51% higher than in May 2025. In Latvia, the price rose by 42,98% to 82,14 EUR/MWh, in Lithuania by 40,95% to 82,21 EUR/MWh, while in Estonia by 10,29% to 60,14 EUR/MWh;
- Electricity prices in two of the three interconnected Baltic bidding areas continued to be higher than the Baltic average – in Sweden’s bidding area 4 the price reached 86,93 EUR/MWh, while in Poland 101,82 EUR/MWh, at the same time the electricity price in Finland was 52,88 EUR/MWh;
- The price increase in the Baltics was mainly driven by a decrease in generation in the Baltics by 28% compared to the previous month and a price increase in Scandinavia by 20% compared to the previous month. In Latvia, with the end of the flood season, hydropower generation decreased significantly, while in some bidding areas interconnected with the Baltics, the price level was also increased by the unavailability of nuclear power plants due to annual maintenance. As electricity generation in the Baltic states decreased, electricity imports from Scandinavia increased, raising the price level;
- Despite the increase in the average electricity price, the number of 15-minute trading intervals with negative electricity prices increased in the Baltic states. In May, 97 such trading intervals were recorded in Latvia, which is 15% more than in April. Meanwhile, in Lithuania this volume increased by 14% to 100 cases, but in Estonia by 103% to 65 cases;
- The total electricity imports to the Baltic states reversed their downward trend of previous months and increased by 18,1% compared to April. This was mainly driven by an increase in imports from Finland by 27,6%, while imports from Poland increased by 1,6%, but imports from Sweden decreased by 1,8%;
- The number of activities carried out in the Latvian Electricity Guarantees of Origin (GO) Register in May showed mixed trends. The number of issued GOs increased by 30%, the number of used GOs by 3%, the number of expired GOs by 2%, while the number of exported GOs increased by 178%. In contrast, the number of imported GOs decreased by 90%, and the number of GOs transferred within Latvia decreased by 7%.
Raw data can be downloaded here.
Electricity production and consumption balance in Latvia* :
The information will be published immediately after its available, but no later than 17.06.2026.
Interconnection load and electricity prices
| Bidding area | Average price in May 2026, EUR/MWh | Compared to previous month, % | Average price in May 2025, EUR/MWh | Lowest 15 minute interval price in May 2026, EUR/MWh | Highest 15 minute interval price in May 2026, EUR/MWh | Lowest daily price in May 2026, EUR/MWh | Highest daily price in May 2026, EUR/MWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPS Finland | 52.88 | 7% | 18.26 | -10.92 | 216.38 | 0.83 | 133.07 |
| NPS Estonia | 60.14 | 10% | 67.62 | -10.92 | 216.38 | 1.75 | 133.07 |
| NPS Latvia | 82.14 | 43% | 67.88 | -15.11 | 391.21 | 5.07 | 133.10 |
| NPS Lithuania | 82.21 | 41% | 67.63 | -15.11 | 391.21 | 4.61 | 133.10 |
| NPS Sweden (SE4) | 86.93 | 41% | 55.08 | -15.59 | 406.14 | 4.46 | 133.11 |
| Poland | 101.82 | 23% | 94.06 | -490.00 | 429.03 | 12.32 | 141.05 |
*Historical data up to 1 October 2025 for periods with negative electricity prices have been mathematically recalculated into 15-minute intervals for comparison purposes.
Price comparison between neighbouring bidding areas
| Comparable bidding areas | 15 minute interval with the same price in May 2026, % | Compared to previous month (percentage points) | Hours with the same price in May 2025, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| NPS FI & EE | 38.1% | 23.8 | 13.8% |
| NPS EE & LV | 44.8% | -24.1 | 98.3% |
| NPS LV & LT | 98.4% | -1.3 | 98.1% |
| NPS LT & SE4 | 17.4% | 15.5 | 3.6% |
Load of the Baltic States interconnections
| Interconnection | Average load in May 2026, % | Compared to previous month (percentage points) | Lowest daily load in May 2026, % | Highest daily load in May 2026, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV -> LT | 31.1% | -1.3 | 5.4% | 78.1% |
| EE -> LV | 64.0% | 22.6 | 37.4% | 99.4% |
| LT -> LV | 10.9% | -0.3 | 0.0% | 37.2% |
| PL->LT | 24.2% | -4.9 | 0.0% | 52.3% |
| LT->PL | 70.9% | 4.6 | 41.1% | 99.0% |
| SE4->LT | 26.4% | -1.4 | 0.0% | 88.8% |
| FI->EE | 57.3% | 10.9 | 28.3% | 97.2% |
| LV>EE | 19.1% | -11.0 | 0.0% | 41.1% |
| EE>FI | 11.1% | -4.2 | 0.0% | 34.9% |
| LT>SE4 | 28.9% | -6.0 | 0.0% | 87.4% |
Electricity import to the Baltic States [1]
| May 2026, MWh | Compared to previous month, % | May 2025, MWh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import from EU countries, including: | 596 463 | 18.1% | 572 220 |
| From Poland | 26 339 | 1.6% | 40 147 |
| From Sweden | 137 480 | -1.8% | 312 314 |
| From Finland | 432 644 | 27.6% | 219 759 |
GUARANTEES OF ORIGIN (GOs)
Statistics of the activity in the Latvia Domain for GOs
| Transaction type | May 2026, MWh | Compared to previous month, % | May 2025, MWh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Issued GOs | 348 836 | 30.4% | 338 301 |
| Cancelled GOs | 111 132 | 2.5% | 87 009 |
| Imported GOs | 10 832 | -90.2% | 38 341 |
| Exported GOs | 283 142 | 177.8% | 123 294 |
| GO Transfers internally | 129 774 | -6.9% | 61 601 |
| Expired GOs | 4 383 | 1.8% | 1 381 |
BALANCING MARKET IN THE BALTIC STATES
Highest and lowest bid prices
| Estonia | Latvia | Lithuania | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upward | Downward | Upward | Downward | Upward | Downward | |
| Highest mFRR price, EUR/MWh | 1300 | 212.44 | 1099 | 677 | 1200 | 381.57 |
| Lowest mFRR price, EUR/MWh | -3.73 | -230.92 | -15.11 | -200 | 0.26 | -299 |
| Highest aFRR price, EUR/MWh | 723 | 304.97 | 1099 | 1149 | 1200 | 400 |
| Lowest aFRR price, EUR/MWh | 0.01 | -182 | -10 | -182 | 0 | -141.28 |
Total activated energy
| Upward | Downward | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Activated energy in May 2026, MWh | Compared to previous month, % | Activated energy in May 2026, MWh | Compared to previous month, % | |
| Estonia mFRR | 24 596 | 48% | 20 916 | -22% |
| Latvia mFRR | 4 361 | 19% | 6 305 | -24% |
| Lithuania mFRR | 11 897 | 46% | 22 390 | 5% |
| Estonia aFRR | 5 325 | 36% | 4 651 | 51% |
| Latvia aFRR | 5 342 | -31% | 8 768 | -33% |
| Lithuania aFRR | 2 418 | 19% | 4 818 | -13% |
Average 15 minutes standard bid size
| Average 15 minutes standard bid size in May 2026, MW | Compared to previous month, % | 15 minutes with no standard bids in May 2026, % | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upward | Downward | Upward | Downward | Upward | Downward | |
| Estonia mFRR | 210 | 341 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Latvia mFRR | 45 | 59 | 21% | -5% | 0% | 0% |
| Lithuania mFRR | 478 | 513 | -7% | -5% | 0% | 0% |
| Estonia aFRR | 40 | 49 | 20% | 17% | 0% | 0% |
| Latvia aFRR | 67 | 70 | -23% | -21% | 0% | 0% |
| Lithuania aFRR | 60 | 76 | 5% | 11% | 0% | 0% |
In case of any doubts, questions or inaccuracies, please contact us at [email protected].
The information contained in the Market Overview is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in the Market Overview is to be construed or used as a basis for investment or as a basis for any claims against AST.
Abbreviations and designations used:
LV - Latvia trade area, LT - Lithuania trade area, EE - Estonia trade area, PL - Poland trade area, FI - Finland trade area, SE4 - Sweden's fourth trade area, AT - Austrian trade area, BE - Belgium trade area, DE-LU - German- Luxembourg trade area, FR - France trade area, NL - the Netherlands trade area, DK1 and DK2 - Danish 1. and 2. trade area.
Load = monthly total commercial flow in kWh / monthly total net transfer capacity in kWh ("Net Transfer Capacity" NTC).
The ENTSO-E Transparency Platform is a central collection and publication of electricity generation, transportation and consumption data and information for the pan-European market.
Guarantee of Origin (GO) is an electronic document, that proves the origin of the generated electricity. GOs are uniquely identifiable, transferable, and therefore tradable and used (by cancellation) to provide information of supplied energy to the end-consumer. One GO = 1 MWh generated and injected into the grid that has an expiration of 12 months after the end of the production period.
* Here and in the following review, the electricity produced is the electricity injected into the grid and the electricity consumed is the electricity received from the grid for consumption.
[1] Here as electricity imports are commercial transactions.